Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
